Saturday, September 6, 2008

Seat prediction

Here's my seat prediction on September 6:

Conservative: 133
Liberal: 65
NDP: 84
Bloc: 26
Green: 0
Other: 0

Total: 308


Anonymous said...

Wow, talk about pulling numbers completely out of your a**. These numbers can't even be squared with the Strategic Council poll, let alone the polls from more reliable firms (Nanos, Decima.) Its good to be optimistic, but there comes a time to put down the bong.

Skinny Dipper said...

I don't base my numbers on what the current polls indicate. I am trying to predict what will happen at the end of the election campaign. If I based the seat prediction on the current poll results, I would agree with you that these numbers would be coming out of my ass.**

Personally, I do think that the Conservatives and NDP will run relatively good campaigns. The Liberals will have trouble with the Green Shift Carbon Tax. The Bloc do not have that bulk of supporters who are angry at Canada. Some of the Quebec voters may switch to the other parties. The Greens will do well in the beginning but lose their (clean) campaign energy in the end.

I do use the UBC Election Stock Market webpage to help me with my seat predictions.

Finally, when the Liberals held their leadership convention, I predicted that Dion would win. I didn't predict that he would do well as a leader, just that he would get elected.