Here's my seat prediction on September 6:
Conservative: 133
Liberal: 65
NDP: 84
Bloc: 26
Green: 0
Other: 0
Total: 308
Showing posts with label canada federal election seat prediction 2008. Show all posts
Showing posts with label canada federal election seat prediction 2008. Show all posts
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
My 2008 Canadian federal election seat prediction
Conservatives - 143 seats
Liberals - 68 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Bloc - 56 seats
Green - 0 seats
Other - 0 seats
I think the Conservatives will focus their campaign on families who live in rural and suburban Canada. They will also maintain their focus on western Canada. This will be a narrowcasting campaign where they will ignore half of the Canadian voters and spend their campaign resources on select voters. For example, the environment may be an important issue to many Canadian voters, but not to people voting Conservative. Income and sales taxes may be more important.
The Liberals may have a good environmental Green Shift tax plan. However, they will be spending much of their energy trying to explain it to voters rather than attack Conservative promises and past policies. A few voters may switch to the NDP and Greens. The Liberals may lose some seats to the Conservatives and NDP because of a loss of a few voters.
The NDP will have that confusing task of whom to attack: Harper or Dion. The NDP may gain a few seats, not because of great NDP campaigning, but because of poor campaigning by the Liberals.
The Bloc Québécois will maintain their seats in Quebec.
The Greens will gain votes from Liberals in safe Liberal urban ridings. However, these votes won't translate into seats for them. The Greens may even get more votes than either the NDP or Bloc. Unfortunately for the Greens, these votes won't become seats. The Green vote will still be spread through Canada.
Liberals - 68 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Bloc - 56 seats
Green - 0 seats
Other - 0 seats
I think the Conservatives will focus their campaign on families who live in rural and suburban Canada. They will also maintain their focus on western Canada. This will be a narrowcasting campaign where they will ignore half of the Canadian voters and spend their campaign resources on select voters. For example, the environment may be an important issue to many Canadian voters, but not to people voting Conservative. Income and sales taxes may be more important.
The Liberals may have a good environmental Green Shift tax plan. However, they will be spending much of their energy trying to explain it to voters rather than attack Conservative promises and past policies. A few voters may switch to the NDP and Greens. The Liberals may lose some seats to the Conservatives and NDP because of a loss of a few voters.
The NDP will have that confusing task of whom to attack: Harper or Dion. The NDP may gain a few seats, not because of great NDP campaigning, but because of poor campaigning by the Liberals.
The Bloc Québécois will maintain their seats in Quebec.
The Greens will gain votes from Liberals in safe Liberal urban ridings. However, these votes won't translate into seats for them. The Greens may even get more votes than either the NDP or Bloc. Unfortunately for the Greens, these votes won't become seats. The Green vote will still be spread through Canada.
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