Tuesday, May 3, 2011

My quick post-election predictions

Harper will still run the government like a control freak.

The vote-subsidy will disappear.

Abortion will be slightly tightened, but not banned.  Harper still needs leverage with his religious extremists while not pissing off a majority of Canadians.  Yes, he can get feminists and their immediate supporters upset.  He knows not to get suburban Conservative supporting moms and dads mad at him.

The Bloc will effectively be gone.  Four seats in parliament makes the party the Blip Québécois.  However, separatism will not be dead.  The focus will be at the provincial level.  If Pauline Marois and her Parti Québecois form the next Quebec provincial government, and if Harper imposes laws that upsets Quebeckers, then the threat of separatism could rise again.  Harper will have very few Quebec Conservatives to support federalism.

Elizabeth May may cross the floor to the Liberals.  She will want to influence a liberal leadership race.

The Liberals will pick a young or middle aged leader whose task will be to rejuvenate the Liberal Party by increasing donations and memberships.  Bob Rae will not become the leader.  With the right leader, the Liberals can bounce back to respectable results.

Back to Harper: expect austerity.  However, the military, prisons, Conservative ridings, and Conservative supporting industries will be exempt from any austerity program.  Expect more gazebos to pop up in every Conservative riding.


Dan Mick said...

I don't think the Bloc is done yet--maybe--but not quite yet. The NDP is an inexperienced anglophone party in Quebec. When their MP's hot the news, the Bloc might go to town on them.

Owen Gray said...

I agree with most of your predictions. However, I don't see Elizabeth May crossing the floor.

On the question of whether Stephen Harper will "relax," I think you're right. It's not in his DNA.