Wednesday, August 27, 2008

My 2008 Canadian federal election seat prediction

Conservatives - 143 seats
Liberals - 68 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Bloc - 56 seats
Green - 0 seats
Other - 0 seats

I think the Conservatives will focus their campaign on families who live in rural and suburban Canada. They will also maintain their focus on western Canada. This will be a narrowcasting campaign where they will ignore half of the Canadian voters and spend their campaign resources on select voters. For example, the environment may be an important issue to many Canadian voters, but not to people voting Conservative. Income and sales taxes may be more important.

The Liberals may have a good environmental Green Shift tax plan. However, they will be spending much of their energy trying to explain it to voters rather than attack Conservative promises and past policies. A few voters may switch to the NDP and Greens. The Liberals may lose some seats to the Conservatives and NDP because of a loss of a few voters.

The NDP will have that confusing task of whom to attack: Harper or Dion. The NDP may gain a few seats, not because of great NDP campaigning, but because of poor campaigning by the Liberals.

The Bloc Québécois will maintain their seats in Quebec.

The Greens will gain votes from Liberals in safe Liberal urban ridings. However, these votes won't translate into seats for them. The Greens may even get more votes than either the NDP or Bloc. Unfortunately for the Greens, these votes won't become seats. The Green vote will still be spread through Canada.

5 comments:

MichaelCC said...

Reasonable prediction, I'm also predicting the NDP closing the gap with the liberals.

MichaelCC said...

Off topic, but I see you're pretty passionate about voting reform, and are really against First past the post. I'm a supporter of FPTP, but I recognize how it strangls the smaller parties. what i always said was reform the senate! But don't elect senators by FPTP, elect senators by proportional representation. This will give a greater voice to more parties, and will alloe the election of a chamber that accuratley reflects Canadian's voting patterns. So, instead of the senate being a bunch of government cronies calling themselves 'the sober second thought', a body reflecting canadians voting patterns can review legislation. this will lessen the power of maj. governments to some extent, and might encourage more Canadians to vote! Sound like a good idea?

P.s i responded to your post on my blog, you might be surprised by what I wrote!

William said...

Interesting predictions (could live with those #'s), but even more interesting is the response by michaelcc outlining elected Senate by proportional representation. Nice idea!

Skinny Dipper said...

Hi MichaelCC,

Sorry to reply so late.

You are correct that I am passionate about voting reform. No, I don't care about voting reform because I think that this will help the NDP and Greens. I don't care if it does or doesn't. I am not a member of any party but I have voted for four of the top parties at least once federally or provincially. I support voting reform so that Canada and the provinces can get a fairer political system and so I can get more value for my vote. I did support MMP for Ontario. I will be strongly supporting STV for British Columbia even though I don't live there.

I do favour either reform or abolition of the Senate. I would prefer reforming the Senate. However, I am not in favour of Harper's piecemeal approach. I do think that full-scaled Senate reform is possible and workable.

Is your idea good? I'll let you decide. Take a look at the Australian Parliament with its AV House of Representatives and STV Senate. I imagine that this is something similar that you may want. It may not be exactly the same, but similar.

Dan Spence said...

What is your prediction for Bill Casey's seat? He is very popular and it appears you think he will lose the seat as an independent.